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Hugo Predictions 2025

UPDATED 5/1/24: Still a little too early to be taken very seriously yet, but there are a few titles to keep watching, including a few carry-overs from last month. The Dragon Awards tend to be announced sometime during the summer and those are more statistically significant than one might realize. —– Now that the 2024 […]

2024 Hugo Finalists Reactions and Analysis

Finalists for the 2024 Hugo Awards have been announced! Congratulations to all the finalists. A few surprises, but not many. Here’s how my prediction model stacked up against the actual finalists (correct predictions bolded). Novel finalists: Novel predictions: Novella finalists: Novella predictions: Initial thoughts I feel good that I was able to predict 5/6 of […]

Final Hugo Predictions 2024 (But First Some Final Thoughts on the 2023 Hugos)

[UPDATE: Reactions and commentary on the finalists here!] It’s been a whirlwind year for the Hugo Awards. From the general feeling of unease and speculation all the way back in early 2023, to the oblivious bliss between the announcement of the finalists and the actual ceremony at the Chengdu Worldcon, to the WTF-ery of the […]